Sea level rise is not the only impact of climate change that will affect coastal areas. Our research, published in Nature Climate Change, found warm planets will also change ocean waves along more than 50% of the world's coastlines.
If our climate warms more than 2 ℃ beyond the level of the industrial revolution era, sea waves in southern Australia tend to be longer and can change the stability of the coastline.
Scientists look at how waves have shaped our coast - forming beaches, spit (sedimentation shaped like a road), lagoons and sea caves - to find out how the coast looked in the past. This is our guide to understanding more than just sea level.
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But often these studies assume that although sea levels may change, sea wave conditions will remain the same.
The same assumptions are used when considering how climate change will affect the coastline in the future - future sea level rise is worth considering, but the impact of future changes on waves, which form the coastline, is often neglected.
Wave change
Waves produced by the wind at sea level. Our changing climate will drive changes in wind patterns around the world (and subsequently change rain patterns, for example changing the El Niño and La Niña patterns. Likewise, these wind changes will change the conditions of ocean waves globally.
Furthermore, regarding the change in waves that are "driven by the weather", sea level rise can change the direction the wave moves from deep to shallow waters, as well as changes in the depth of the coast, which can have an impact on the coral system.
A recent study analyzed wind and wave records from satellite measurements for 33 years, and found the average wind speed increased by 1.5 meters per second and wave height increased by 30 cm - increasing by 8% and 5% respectively, from historical records that relatively short of this.
These changes are most visible in the Southern Ocean (Antarctic Ocean) and are important because the waves generated in the Southern Ocean move to all ocean basins along ocean currents, northward to the San Francisco latitude.
The increase in sea water is only part of the impact
With the historical change in sea wave conditions, we are interested in how the projected changes in atmospheric circulation in the future, in warmer climates. Will it change the wave conditions around the world?
As part of the Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project, 10 research organizations have joined forces to look at a series of different global wave models in various future climate scenarios, to determine how ocean waves will change in the future.
When we identified the differences between the different studies, we found that if the 2 ℃ target of the Paris Agreement was maintained then changes in sea wave patterns would at least remain within natural climate variability.
However, in the present conditions, namely warming continues in line with current trends, modeling shows significant changes in sea wave conditions along 50% of the world's beaches. This change varies by region.
Less than 5% of the world's coastline is at risk of rising sea waves, including Australia's southern coast, and parts of the Pacific coast of South and Central America.
Elsewhere, it is estimated that about 15% of beaches worldwide, can also change the system in coastal areas.
But to describe ocean waves only from a height is tantamount to judging an orchestra just by how loud the music is played.
Some areas will see the height of the ocean waves staying the same, but the length or frequency changes.
This puts more pressure on the coast (or infrastructure on the coast), for example waves increasingly reach the coast and increase the risk of flooding due to ocean waves.
Likewise, ocean waves moving in a slightly altered direction (which will occur in more than 20% of the world's coastline) can change how much sand is carried along the coast - it is important to consider the ability of the coast to make these changes.
Infrastructure built on the coast, or offshore, is sensitive to these wave characteristics.
In addition to the characteristics of each wave that are important to look at, our study identified that about 40% of the world's coastlines tend to see changes in wave heights, periods and directions that occur simultaneously.
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